Business EconomyPosted at: Jun 8 2026 3:38PM


Three major climate negotiating groups projected to fall short of their 2030 and 2035 targets: CEEW

Sourav Shekhar
New Delhi, Jun 8 (UNI) Three major climate negotiating groups -- the Umbrella Group, the European union (EU), and the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) -- collectively projected to fall short of their 2030 and 2035 targets, said the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) report released here on Monday.
Here, the Umbrella Group consists of Australia, Canada, Iceland, Japan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) has Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco, the Republic of Korea, Switzerland, and Georgia.
According to the report, these groups are projected to emit nine per cent more than their 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, with this projected to increase to 19 per cent in 2035 compared to the target levels.
The study "Holding up the Mirror: Tracking Climate Actions across UNFCCC Negotiating Groups in the era of Geopolitical Uncertainty" came at a time when international climate cooperation is under pressure from geopolitical instability, delayed actions, and widening trust deficits.
Most of the countries in the BASIC Group, including South Africa, India, and China, are more closely aligned with their 2030 commitments despite lower historical responsibility and greater development constraints.
Ravi Prasad, Distinguished Fellow, CEEW and former climate change negotiator for India, said, "Ten years after Paris, the world cannot keep measuring climate leadership by announcements alone. Delivery remains the ultimate test. South Asia and the wider Global South are showing that development and climate action can move together, but this requires fairness in how ambition is judged, and support is delivered."
Prasad noted that wealthy economies must move faster, both to meet their own targets and to keep enough carbon space for countries still addressing basic development needs.
The next phase of climate diplomacy must be about accountability: who is acting, who is falling behind, and who is enabling others to deliver.
"Among the Umbrella Group, EU, and EIG countries assessed, only Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Ukraine are projected to meet both their 2030 and 2035 climate targets. Norway could meet its 2030 target, while New Zealand could meet its 2035 target," the report said.
The CEEW said that only Iceland and South Korea are projected to increase emissions despite having reduction targets.
The report said India has met its 50 per cent non-fossil installed capacity ahead of schedule, and the country is progressing towards emissions intensity and carbon sink goals by achieving a 37 per cent reduction in GDP emissions intensity and creating 2.4 billion CO2e (Carbon Dioxide Equivalent) of additional carbon sink.
Coming to China, the report said that it has met its wind, solar capacity, and forest stock volume targets ahead of 2030. The country has reduced CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 51 per cent relative to 2005 levels.
South Africa's 2022 emissions stood at 394 MtCO2e, which were already within its 2030 target range.
Sumit Prasad, Senior Programme Lead, CEEW and co-author of the study, said, "The first transparency cycle under the Paris Agreement gives countries a clearer mirror of implementation. The question now is whether current pathways can credibly deliver on existing promises."
Prasad noted that countries that are off track must strengthen near-term action before 2030, improve the credibility of their 2035 targets, and avoid shifting the burden of emissions cuts to the future.
Faster domestic action by wealthy countries, backed by finance and technology support for developing countries, will be critical to rebuilding trust in the climate process.
Highlighting the situation of healthier economies, the report said that the EU would need to reduce emissions by 4.8 per cent annually after 2022, which is nearly four times its earlier pace.
The United States and Canada would need to increase their annual emissions reduction rates by 5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively, after 2022.
These findings suggest that delayed action by developed countries could shift a larger mitigation burden to the post-2030 period and reduce the remaining carbon space for developing countries.
The CEEW finds that the BASIC group slowed its annual emissions growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the pre-Paris period to 2.1 per cent after Paris.
During 2016–22, BASIC countries collectively emitted 8.5 GtCO₂e less than they would have if pre-Paris trends had continued.
This is equivalent to more than 10 per cent of global emissions in 2022.
Comparatively, the Umbrella Group, EU, and EIG together reduced emissions by 3.7 GtCO₂e by not following pre-Paris trends in the post-Paris era.
The report also noted that emissions are heavily concentrated within the negotiating groups.
During 2009-22, BASIC accounted for more than half of total emissions across the groups studied, with China alone accounting for 74 per cent of its group's emissions.
Within the Umbrella Group, the US accounted for 63 per cent of its group's emissions, underlining how decisions by a few large economies can shape the climate credibility of entire groups.
The CEEW said that the credibility of the Paris Agreement increasingly depends on implementation, not announcements.
"It calls on off-track countries and blocs to accelerate near-term domestic action, align 2035 targets with credible pathways, and avoid delaying emissions cuts until after 2030."
It also highlights the need for wealthy countries to move faster while providing finance and technology support to developing countries.
This will be critical to maintaining fairness, enabling development, and preserving enough carbon space for countries still addressing basic needs, the report added.
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