New Delhi, June 11 (UNI) A new study has sounded the alarm on the intensifying threat of extreme heatwaves in Indian cities. Urban areas like Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Surat, Thane, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are projected to see a two-fold increase in heatwave days by 2030, according to the study by IPE Global and Esri India.
Launched at the Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, the report 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate' paints a grim picture of the years ahead as India grapples with rapidly intensifying climate extremes.
India has seen a 15-fold rise in extreme heatwave days over the past 30 years, with a staggering 19-fold increase just in the last decade. These prolonged heat spells are now leading to erratic and intense rainfall, expected to hit 80% of Indian districts by 2030, says the report.
"The pace and scale of change are unprecedented," warns Abinash Mohanty, climate lead at IPE Global. "We're seeing the monsoon stretch into long summer-like conditions, turning rainfall into unpredictable bursts that are hard to manage and even harder to recover from."
By 2030, 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will likely endure frequent heat stress, violent downpours, lightning storms, and even hailstorms. Coastal districts, in particular, are under severe threat, with nearly 70% expected to suffer relentless summer-like heat during monsoons—a figure that could climb to 79% by 2040.
States like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, and others will face the worst of both heat and floods, impacting over 80% of their districts, said the study, aligning with the UN secretary-general António Guterres’ global call to action on extreme heat. For India, these aren't distant threats, they are already unfolding.
Ashwajit Singh, managing director of IPE Global, stressed that the Global South, especially India, is at a double disadvantage: struggling to develop while also fighting the worst impacts of climate change.
Deforestation, land-use changes, and destruction of wetlands and mangroves are accelerating India’s local climate crisis. These human-driven changes have led to a 63% shift in land use in several vulnerable districts.
The study has called for a national climate risk observatory (CRO) using satellite data and climate models, district-level heat-risk champions to lead local action, and risk financing tools to cushion the economic blows of disasters.
Esri India’s managing director Agendra Kumar emphasized the importance of data and GIS mapping to build resilience: “We can no longer afford to treat these as isolated events. This is our new reality and we need systems to respond accordingly.”
India is already experiencing the devastating effects of climate change. Without urgent and comprehensive action, these impacts will intensify, threatening lives, infrastructure, and economic development. Building resilience now through science, planning, and community engagement is essential.
UNI AJ PRS